Projecting the demand for qualifications in the Scottish economy to 2007 – full report

Abstract

SQA needs to understand the skills that are required now and in the future if it is to maintain and develop qualifications that meet the needs of employers and employees. Potential contradictions in recent work on the Scottish labour market - where forecasts of occupational change suggesting labour shortages in Associate Professional & Technical and Skilled Trades jobs are at odds with the nature and extent of skills shortages reported by employers - make this research essential. This report aims to improve the intelligence available to SQA in this respect by:
Predicting the industrial and occupational structure of the Scottish Economy to 2007.
Making recommendations to SQA as to where they should therefore focus their resources in order to make good any forecast over and under supply of qualifications in the future in specific industries/occupations.

Established data analysis techniques are applied to British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data for Scotland to estimate:
1. The change in employment in the Scottish economy as a whole.
2. Changes in the turnover and relative shares of total employment of different industries.
3. Changes in the turnover and relative shares of different occupations within each industry and the associated requirements for qualifications.