The long and winding road: extent, patterns and outcomes of contingent employment in the UK -abstract-

Abstract

As flexibility requirements on labour markets arise, contingent forms of employment become increasingly prevalent, while the weight of standard employment declines. The different kinds of contingent employment (fixed term, marginal, part-time and solo-self-employment) reflect not only employers’ and employees’ preferences, but also varying labour market risks regarding stability and future prospects. The main question here is what are the effects of such an employment form for employees? Are they dangerous traps that constitute precarious employment careers or are they helpful bridges that maintain chances for future employment? Using panel data from Germany (GSOEP) and the United Kingdom (BHPS), the kinds of contingent employment will be analysed, by firstly, finding patterns of employment pathways, and secondly, calculating transition risks into full-time respectively non-employment. The patterns are detected by applying the methods of sequence analysis (optimal matching) and cluster analysis to the longitudinal employment information. This approach reveals employment career types that again will be examined with respect to their employment and unemployment risks using a multinomial logit model. Despite the different structure of German and British labour markets the risk of non-employment is expected to be higher in Germany, whereas in the United Kingdom because of its liberal labour market structure a higher extent of contingent employment will be expected, but in return, the unemployment risks remain low.