Future expectations amongst Young People in the United Kingdom: Prevalence and Patterns across Generations and Socioeconomic Groups

Abstract

Using UKHLS Youth Module data, we examined 16-year-olds’ future expectations with latent profile analysis. Most young people anticipated higher education, marriage, and children, while a “Career-Focused” group prioritised education and employment over family. The smallest group (~6%) held low expectations for study, work, and parenthood, and anticipated unemployment. Every £100 increase in equivalised weekly household income raised the odds of belonging to the most aspirational class by 5% versus the low-expectations group. Longitudinally, the lowexpectations group had lowest education, prolonged unemployment, and highest parenthood before 21. Understanding these distinct profiles provides insights to support adolescents transitioning to adulthood.