A dynamic microsimulation model for the Italian social security system

Abstract

We present the technical structure of CAPP_DYN, a population based dynamic microsimulation model for the analysis of long term redistributive effects of social policies, developed at CAPP (Centro di Analisi delle Politiche Pubbliche) to study the intergenerational and the intragenerational redistributive effects of reforms in the social security system. The model simulates probabilistically the socio-demographic and economic evolution of a representative sample of the Italian population for the period 2005-2050. After a short review of the existing similar models for the Italian economy, a rather detailed analysis and discussion of the functioning of the model as well as a description of estimation procedures employed in each single module of the models is offered.